The weather predicted by the BBC for four days time was justģ0-40% accurate - i.e. So what have we learned? Can we fault the prescience of the BBC's five dayįorecasts? Yes. So? Are weather reports prophetic or pathetic? I'm working on adding a better scoring system, since this accuracy Show if the BBC is getting better or worse over time. The 'yearly' accuracy is based on the last 365 days of results, to 'Drizzle' are all considered close enough to be an accurate forecast. Likewise, 'Light Showers', 'Light Rain' and So if the prediction is 'Partly Cloudly', then 'Sunny Intervals' isĪlso considered equivalent. Very simply! I take the BBC's weather icons and compare them, using a bit of Tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's. The accuracy of another really simple weather predictor - guessing that It's not so useful to just show the numbers for the BBC's weather accuracy on In other words, theīBC's guess about tomorrow's weather in Cambridge was right roughly half of as I write this, the table below shows that the weatherįorecast for Cambridge one day ahead was 53% accurate. The tables below show the accuracy of the BBC's weather forecasts, listedīy time. We'll be able to see how often the weather forecasts were right. Over time, as this program collects more and more of the weather predictions, Reads the latest five day forecast, and compares today's weather with what theīBC said it would be in their previous forecasts. So the BBC couldn't possibly get this wrong. I'm making the assumption that predicting today's weather is dead simple, The five day weather predictions also include today's weather.
Weather divinations, I've chosen to take the easy route and use the BBC's own Well, rather than scurry around the whole of the UK in order to check their The MET office accurately modelling the world's climate, or is it resting itsīrain and picking out sun and rain symbols at random? We will find the answer! Predictions useful, or are they no good at all? Is the super computer in ok I got bored sometime later on) to write a small computer Only to find it pissing down with rain on the day, I was inspired Problem is, just how good are these predictions? After once using theīBC's weather page to book myself a nice sun-drenched Friday off work, Gives a five day prediction of the weather for any location inīritain. Most useful features being their localised weather reports. Offers countless weather forecasts on their web site. Generally light southerly winds with temperatures staying in the high single figures.How accurate are the weather forecasts? How good are the weather forecasts? Highest temperatures of 8 to 10 degrees in mostly light southerly breezes.įurther Outlook: Largely cloudy for Friday and the weekend, but staying mainly dry although the odd spot of light rain or drizzle is possible. Thursday: A fairly cloudy day with limited bright spells, but generally dry and calm. Further south, clearer skies and light winds will allow patchy mist or fog to develop. Wednesday Night: The rain and drizzle over the northern half of the country will gradually ease as winds become light. Highest temperatures of 9 to 11 degrees in mostly moderate southwest winds. Staying much drier with sunny spells in the south, with just patches of drizzle. Wednesday: Cloudy with outbreaks of rain developing over the northern half of the country. Lowest temperatures of 7 to 10 degrees across the north and west, colder in the south and east with lows of 4 to 6 degrees. Staying largely dry but light patchy rain or drizzle will push into the northwest in fresh to strong southwesterly winds. Tuesday Night: Generally cloudy with some clear spells in the south. Headline: High pressure building from the southeast keeping conditions generally settled for the rest of the week. Holding dry in Munster and Leinster with some sunny spells and light to moderate southwest winds. Southwest winds will strengthen in the northwest, but will stay light elsewhere allowing some mist and fog patches to form.Ĭloudy for much of Connacht and Ulster tomorrow with patchy rain and drizzle at times throughout the day and moderate to fresh southwest winds. Overnight lows of -1 to +4 degrees, with a touch of frost in places. Cloud will push in across the northwest overnight, bringing some patchy drizzle towards dawn. Highest temperatures of 5 to 9 degrees in light southwesterly or variable breezes.ĭry tonight with good clear spells. A lot of dry weather elsewhere with sunny spells developing with just a few isolated showers occurring in the northwest. Issued at: 13 December 2021 07:04 TODAY - Monday 13th DecemberĬloudy across much of Leinster and Munster today with patchy rain and drizzle in the southeast. Peer-reviewed journal articles by Met Éireann staff members Past Weather Agrometeorological Bulletins